1 Why to investigate the catastrophe further?
data:24 października 2013     Redaktor: AK

One can often hear the statement that the Smolensk catastrophe is over, everything was explained long ago. Likewise, the issue of assassination is being turned away as something contrary to common sense. In this chapter we face this type of feedback.

1.1 Motive.

Often, you can find out the opinions "But Kaczynski would lose the election anyway, why would anyone want to kill him?".


There have been a lot of speculations about possible motives.  It's hard to decide which is the most probable, but to consider the hypothesis of assassination it is sufficient to take a look at (at least) one of them.

One of the most common, yet simple, motive is revenge killings.  Of course, in the case of late President Lech Kaczynski we should talk about political revenge, which is often intended to scare people who could follow the footsteps of murdered president.  It is known that the main suspect, Vladimir Putin, who at least once has followed this motive - in 2006, was murdered Alexander Litvinenko, a former lieutenant colonel of Russian special forces KGB and FSB, who in 1998 revealed factum that he has been issued the order to murder one of the Putin’s opponents - Boris Berezovsky. After this he has been granted political asylum in Britain.

From 1998 to 2006, it's been eight years.  Litvinenko at that time was active against Putin, but outside activities could no longer be as effective and dangerous as the disclosure of order to murder a political opponent.  Despite this, in 2006, he was poisoned with polonium, a Scotland Yard investigation, based on radioactive traces (which polonium leaves), showed clearly that the perpetrator of the murder was Andrei Lugovoi, the former KGB officer, deputy of the Russian State Duma.  Russia, however, refused to extradite him.

It's hard to find any other motive of Litvinenko's murder than revenge for betrayal of the FSB, what is indeed a common practice in the special services.  It is also not a secret that late President Kaczynski has pursued a policy conflicting with the interests of Russia.  It was a good enough reason to consider in Russia the possibility of killing him, even just to scary other leaders of the Central European countries to not follow his footsteps ...

Prepared by AK




1.2 Opportunity makes the thief.

We don’t leave repeatedly convicted thief alone in a bank full of money, additionally handing him weapon. Meanwhile in case of Smolensk’s catastrophe we are dealing precisely with a such situation.

It’s commonly known, that Russia is now one of the most aggressive countries in the world. It’s enough to mention two Chechen wars (1994-1996 and 1999-2009), the murder of Anna Politkowska and Alexander Litvinenko (2008). Hypothetical assassination of polish president fits perfectly into this list.


It should be noted that the Russian special services have many very complicated operations under their belts – certainly such attempt wouldn’t be beyond their operational capacities. Some of the most famous and the best described operations include:

  • Operation TRUST from the 20s of the last century – to set false and wholly owned subsidiary of Kremlin and Bolshevik organization to control and discredit leaders of the anti-Bolshevik movements. Operation to be effective, have to be done on a massive scale. It’s expected that over the last 90 years the capabilities of special services has increased…
  • Shooting down Korean Air’s passenger aircraft by Russian fighter Su-15 in 1983 with Congressman Larry McDonald on board because of violation of USSR’s air zone. Years later, it turned out that the plane was “lured” over Soviet territory using the so-called “meaconing technique” – a way to trick the aircraft navigation system (GPS based) by capturing the signal from the satellite and re- sending it stronger, but slightly delayed. In this way the plane receives outdated information about their position, what could results in deviation of aircraft track heading.

Carrying out such a hypothetical attack by the Russian side was greatly facilitated by the fact that the plane was a Russian construction. In December 2009 it returned from the overhaul in Russia. The area of the crash belonged to Russia and the official report was drawn up by the Russian controlled MAK.


We are dealing with a criminal state that had all the means to carry out the assassination. 10th of April 2010 on the occasion of 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre – an exceptionally large delegation was setting out to Smolensk. President Kaczynski certainly would not resign from such an event. Additionally on the board of plane were mainly representatives of the opposition camp. This was an consequence of splitting an official polish delegation (by Prime Minister Chancellery) into one with Prime Minister Tusk (7th April) and the second with President Kaczynski. (10th of April). So the temptation therefore was high…


Prepared by AK



1.3 Murder in the eyes of the whole world?


Is it possible that the Kremlin have dared to commission assassination , which would be seen by the whole world? Would the Russians proceed so clumsy in securing evidence, investigations, etc., that they could throw on themselves even more suspicions - they would not be so naive preparing such an attempt! In the next part of this text we will tender pleas, that this is however possible!

First of all, belief that Putin after contracting assassination would have an interest in hiding it from the rest of the world is completely wrong. On the contrary – the principal wants everyone to know what he has done, in the same time remaining untouchable. Then he gains additional benefits: he sends a warning to his enemies, that he will not hesitate to take drastic measures if necessary, and the leaders of the rest of the world shows how powerful he is –whatever crime he commits he stays unpunished. Even ignoring state structure of the foreign country, at which attempt is directed ( refusal to return plane’s wreckage , etc. ), and provoking public (swapping bodies after identification of victims , etc.). This is indeed "game on the nose " of the Polish society!


In 2006 Alexander Litvinenko was murdered, a former lieutenant colonel of Russian special forces (KGB and FSB), who revealed in 1998 that he has been given an order to murder Putin’s opponent - Boris Berezovsky, and who received political asylum in Great Britain. Litvinenko was poisoned with polonium and Scotland Yard investigation, based on radioactive traces which polonium leaves, showed clearly that the perpetrator was Andrei Lugovoi , also former KGB officer, deputy of the Russian’s parliament - Duma. Russia, however, refused to extradite him. What was the reason to use a poison, which leaves such visible traces, if not a desire to show who is behind this murder? Of course , it was impossible to predict what investigators would find out, but certainly one should take into account possibility of finding perpetrators. In addition, Litvinenko died a long and painful death, what indicates desire to intimidate enemies of the Kremlin.


What, then, would guarantee impunity for Putin? Among the many differences between the world of politics, which is governed by cold calculation and care for their own interests, and the world of ordinary people is that there is no police chasing states who violate regulations. While the average murderer wants to hide his crime, the offender ruling the state should only calculate possibility of standing in the way of other’s more powerful interests. Moral norms do not apply in this world (no one will endanger its citizens in the name of interests of foreign countries), It exists only unwritten rule, that too obvious transgression of established norms and standards could lead to a revolution and government overthrown. This effect can be however mitigated with the help of propaganda...


Some argue that "the assassination would be too risky, because people would have figured it out". These people are, unconsciously, excellent examples showing the error in their own reasoning - people would not have figured it out, because they would say that "the assassination would be too risky , because people would have figured it out"...


Prepared by AK



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